Saturday, August 14, 2010

One Data Point, Exactly

I happen to have an old university friend who is a keen Austrian, in the economics sense.  Austrians appear to reject all forms of empirical investigation, and hence are unlikely to be the subject of warmth given my econometric standpoint.

They emphasise theoretical reasoning based on "self-evident" axioms, but also emphasise how complicated the world with terribly difficult to model human beings is, and hence how we cannot possibly hope to test any economic theory.  So they tell us how the world is, but aren't prepared to have their "self-evident" theories tested by real economic data.

They also appear to be generally libertarian in nature, and hence hold the price mechanism in the utmost regard: It can solve all problems.  Even where the price mechanism won't yield the optimal solution, it will still always yield a better solution than government intervention.

So this post on Cafe Hayek is particularly shocking on so many levels.  The author does make the point that one data point is not sufficient, and that's the point I should emphasise on the econometric sceptic blog.  But moreover, why is an Austrian defending a social democracy that has an extensive social safety net?

The defence though, against this assertion is simple: It's one data point, and you can't prove anything with one data point.

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